Online roulette works by way of random number generators, or RNG. The only way to replicate the random generation of the results of a turn of a card, a roll of a dice, or a spin of a ball on a wheel is to use software programs that generate random numbers.
Well an RNG program is just a pseudo set of random numbers. I'm assuming if you had the coding for the RNG, you could theoretically predict all future numbers based on the code. So what kind of system would actually exploit flaws in the RNG? I'm guessing it would have to be some kind of system that places a series of on and off bets based on certain preconditions being triggerred.
And if there are systems that are able to exploit flaws in the RNG, why is it so hard to win at slot machines? Is it because professional RNGs are more advanced?
Does anyone remember the story about the former NGC member that exploited flaws in the RNG of Keno machines before getting caught? He 'claims' to have uncovered a flaw in the RNG and was successfully able to beat the system at least before getting caught.
Backing up a bit, no, just the code of an RNG won't allow you to predict future outcomes based on a running program. You'd need to know the initial conditions too - seed values, etc. Most good RNGs use an entropy source for that, like thermal noise or some suitably random time element, and if you don't know that precisely even knowing the algorithm won't help. If it's a *bad* RNG, sure, it's beatable. But even then, for something like dice rolls, even (int)RNG() % 6 + 1 is very hard to predict in the short run. It may be biased, but it's not predictable using a betting system.
The exploit done with the online poker deck worked because they were using a deck of cards, and once you can map RNG outcomes to shuffle orders you only need a few cards to know what the rest of the deck is. That doesn't work with dice.
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When I first issued my challenge I was not aware of this, so had no rule to guard against it. So somebody accepted my challenge. His system was to remember the first 10 outcomes in roulette, and then wait for the first 9 of them to occur, in order, and then bet on the 10th one. That was clearly an abuse of bias in random number generators.
The one I use now I don't think would fall victim to that. However, if I redid the challenge, somebody could read on my site that I now use a Mersenne' target='_blank'>http://wizardofodds.com/askthewizard/randomnumbers.html]Mersenne Twister. Such a person could get the same sequence of random numbers I get, and could easily exploit my challenge. People have been known to beat Internet casinos by using various common RNGs until they figured out the which one the casino was using by the pattern of results.
You're talking about Ron Harris, and he didn't uncover a flaw, he created it. When he went to 'inspect' the machines under the auspices of the GCB, he gaffed the ROMs and made them beatable (by him).
Ron Harris did in fact mess with slot machines,
but also proved that the rng of Keno at the time could be cracked. That is what tripped him up in Atlantic City, hitting a jackpot with a friend on day one.
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Here is a google preview of a very nice book to read.
License to Steal: Nevada's Gaming Control System in the Megaresort Age
HERE
I knew Larry Volk, the person that was murdered at the beginning of the book.
The NGC and the State of Nevada did NOTHING to protect him from the knowledge he had about casinos 'fixing' their slot machines.
A must read book for what happened back in the 80s.
I will not say too much about the book, but Ron Harris was in charge of that case and new Larry Volk was in danger for his life by the things he knew.
I do not condone what Ron Harris did, remember he knew as much also, he only was in jail 3 years as I recall, and he probably feared for his life also. What made him 'crack' ? only he knows.He did not steal lots of money as compared to Wall Street thieves, but he was and is labeled a criminal to this day.
Well an RNG program is just a pseudo set of random numbers. I'm assuming if you had the coding for the RNG, you could theoretically predict all future numbers based on the code. So what kind of system would actually exploit flaws in the RNG? I'm guessing it would have to be some kind of system that places a series of on and off bets based on certain preconditions being triggerred.
There was a case of this in Montreal. A Keno player noticed that when a particular machine was unplugged - so that housekeeping maintenance (vacuuming) can be done on the casino floor, the machine started up with the same numbers as its last 'cold start.' Apparently, that particular machine did not re-seed it's start. He played the numbers (10 out of 10 Keno or something like that) and won big. He was the only player at that time of the overnight, and noticed this.
Then they discovered the re-seeding problem, and tried to apply criminal charges to him. They failed on that.
I lost the link to this case, but is was a pure RNG case.
As for sequences now repeating, theirs a random re-seed inserted between generations, to break up statit sequences.
Generally the gambling community considers slot machines to be unbeatable. This is because the game outcomes are determined by a random number generator, which is considered completely unpredictable. But a group of Russian hackers have been able to exploit a flaw in a widespread type of random number generator. With the broad range of new slots at internet casinos, the online gambling community has a renewed interest in slots. You can see a list of new slot sites if you’re looking for new places to play.
The affected machines are manufactured by an Australian company named Aristocrat, who are one of the world’s largest suppliers. So the matter is not trivial, and casinos are reporting some enormous losses from the affected machines. As far as we know, slots at online casinos are not affected. But this case may give clues on how to beat slot machines.
So how is this possible if the random number generators are truly random? The answer is they are not random. But before continuing, first let’s explain the two main types of random number generators.
Psuedo RNG vs True RNG
RNG stands for “random number generator”. But there are two main types of random number generators. The most common is Pseudo RNG, which is simply a mathematical algorithm that determines casino game outcomes. It is the technology used in all modern slot machines.
The other type of RNGs typically use sources of radiation to randomise number generation. Such types are mostly hardware, and are called true random number generators. It’s not unlike pointing a radiation meter such as a Geiger counter at the stars, and the interval of the clicks will randomly vary. To be more specific, the clicks are not random. In fact nothing is random. It’s more a matter of whether or not they can be predicted. There is no known way to predict the exact radiation level at an exact time, which makes these types of random number generators reliable and unpredictable.
The Weakness of Pseudo Random Number Generators
Finding patterns in just a few spins of a slot machine is almost impossible. Likewise, short-term data doesn’t realistically tell you anything useful. Therefore the Russian hackers purchased a modern slot machine to study in depth. Ultimately they found and exploited a flaw through data crunching.
This involves reviewing tens of thousands of game outcomes, then meticulously checking data for anomalies. A common anomaly is an outcome that occurs more often than it would if the games were truly random. For example, if there were one hundred possible outcomes, normally we can expect each outcome to occur as often as others. But over short-term data, certain outcomes are likely to repeat an inordinate number of times. This is useless short-term data. Analysis of long-term data reveals the true story.
Putting it into perspective of roulette, there are thirty-seven numbers or pockets on the European wheel. After ten thousand spins, we can expect each number to appear around about the same number of times. But if number zero appears significantly above the expected amount of times, we may conclude that the wheel is biased. This is a simple analogy, and not exactly what the slot machine hackers have likely done.
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One particularly common flaw in pseudorandom generators is that particular sequences of game outcomes are more likely to appear. The most common sequence is a string of repeated numbers or outcomes. Again in the context of roulette, we may find a pseudorandom generator repeats the same numbers for a brief moment of time. This is often known as a convergence. It is not particularly easy to see by looking at raw logs of game outcomes alone. However, it is relatively easy to see if the game outcomes are placed onto an image. One notoriously unreliable random number generator is from Microsoft Excel. If you use the random function in Excel, you will find patches of the data where the numbers repeat an inordinate number of times.
Aristocrats response to the flaw
Only Aristocrat the company knows how many machines are affected, but it is believed to be hundreds of thousands throughout the world. Gaming insiders have stated that the machines are not likely to be replaced, because the cost to replace them may well run into the millions of dollars. Aristocrat has issued a software update for the machines, but this is unlikely to have fixed the root cause of the problem. In fact the hackers specifically stated the flaw still exists. Aristocrat have dismissed this as a possibility, although they probably would have beforehand.
How the hackers changed the odds
The player sits at the slot machine wearing a hidden camera. The live video feed of the slot machine is streamed to a server, which analyses slot machine behavior. Then at the required time, the play is instructed to press a specific button on the machine. This in turn increases the likelihood of a payout.
Whether or not the approach works on online slot machines remains to be seen. But certainly a low quality pseudorandom generator is likely to generate game outcomes with statistical anomalies. It’s more a question of data crunching, and obtaining enough data. Because realistically you need over ten thousand spins.
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One thing to consider is if one of the world’s largest and most reputable slot machine company can make a mistake, so can the many smaller suppliers of psuedo random number generators. This means there is in fact hope to beat slot machines, or any game that uses psuedo random number generators. It’s more a question of obtaining enough data, and finding a usable exploit.